It has been a rough stretch for smart science fiction movies over the past decade, but there's hope on the horizon in the form of 2020 releases Inception, smart science fiction has not only forced audiences to think, but also drove them to the cinemas in large numbers.
Recently, however, "smart sci-fi" has been struggling to make a huge impact on the box office. Big-budget titles such as Blade Runner 2049 have flopped despite critical acclaim, and it seems that filmgoers have been opting for louder, more bombastic flicks that pack less of an intellectual punch. Considering the trend, it would be reasonable to worry whether big studios will continue to finance large science fiction projects, as audiences don't seem to be as interested as they once were.
But if any year were to bring a box office renaissance for smart science fiction, it would be 2020. Both Tenet and Dune are set up for major success at the box office; the former is a Christopher Nolan movie, and the latter is an adaptation of a wildly popular series of books. Perhaps these two films could be the ones to put smart science fiction back on filmgoers' radars.
Smart Sci-Fi Movies Have Struggled In Recent Years
Years ago, smart sci-fi was a nearly automatic recipe for both critical and commercial success. This can be traced all the way back to 1999, when Arrival, a film about aliens and language that might have been the smartest of the bunch, grossed $203 million (on a $47 million budget) and picked up eight more Academy Award nominations.
But shared similar critical success, and while it didn't bomb as hard as Annihilation, its $127 million gross against an $87 million budget was still underwhelming.
2019 featured a number of big-budget action movies that had massive international success, but most of them were Marvel films: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is technically science fiction, but it was part of an already massive franchise and doesn't fall into the category of "smart sci-fi." No one expected Ad Astra to get even close to competing with those films, but audiences seem to be losing interest in the thinking man's action flick.
Tenet & Dune Are 2020's Most Exciting Movies
Enter Tenet and Dune, which look like they have all the elements to be crossover successes and break smart sci-fi's losing streak. Dunkirk. With a July 17 release date, Tenet is sure to be one of the summer's biggest films.
Dune adapts Frank Herbert's 1965 novel, which is the best selling science-fiction book of all time. Tenet, Dune is one of the most anticipated films of the year, period – not just in the science fiction genre.
How Tenet & Dune Can Save Smart Sci-Fi
2020 is Eternals are perhaps the biggest ones, which don't have anywhere near the name recognition of Avengers or Spider-Man. In short, the door is open for other films to dominate the box office.
So why not Tenet or Dune? Chances are, both will be critically acclaimed. Nolan has never made a bad movie in his career. The lowest rated film on Rotten Tomatoes that he has directed is Interstellar, which still got a 72%, certified fresh. Tenet is expected to be one of his most ambitious releases yet, so audiences can expect big ideas – and a big box office. The film has already been given a PG-13 rating, which should open it up to much greater ticket sales than if it were rated R. Unless the film turns out to be a major disappointment – which would be unprecedented for Nolan – it's essentially guarenteed to be a hit.
Conversely,Blade Runner 2049 – same director, same studio, and released at the same time of year. One can argue that Dune has a lot more fans than Blade Runner did going in, but the book is more than fifty years old. There is certainly a chance that fans don't turn out to the point the studio hopes, which would spell more trouble for smart science fiction. But if it lands and turns into a hit, studios should take notice, and be a lot more willing to open up their pocketbooks for similar films in the future.
