Wicked's win for Best Film at NBR a substantial achievement.

It's difficult to see news that the National Board of Review named Wicked the year's Best Film and not think about what it means for the movie's Best Picture chances at the 2025 Oscars. The highly successful Broadway musical adaptation is now deemed better than movies that were thought to be in a better position to win Best Picture next March. It marks a shift in the landscape of a very competitive and unpredictable awards season, and I've seen reactions to Wicked's NBR win that make it feel like it's heading for Oscars glory next - but is it?

History Suggests Wicked Won't Win Best Picture - Despite NBR's Best Film Win

The National Board Of Review's Best Film Award Isn't A Major Best Picture Predictor

Wicked's win at NBR is impressive, no doubt, but the movie is not suddenly in pole position to win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars because of it. The cold hard truth is that the odds of that happening are still mostly stacked against the musical. Wicked is the 93rd movie to win Best Film from the National Board of Review. However, only 22 of the previous 92 winners went on to also win Best Picture at the Oscars. That's only a 23% hit rate with NBR's Best Film and the Oscars' Best Picture winners matching.

Viewing Wicked as having a roughly one in five shot of winning Best Picture because it won NBR's Best Film might seem like fairly good odds in the grand scheme of the awards season. That might even be a fair assessment of Wicked's current Best Picture odds in the race. However, the correlation between NBR and the Academy Awards is far worse since the start of the 21st century. The two awards shows have only agreed on the best film of the year three times since 2000. Those winners were No Country For Old Men, Slumdog Millionaire, and Green Book.

I don't sense that the Broadway adaptation is suddenly a frontrunner to win

To be clear, I'm not claiming that Wicked's Best Film win from NBR is inconsequential to the 2025 Oscars race. It's simply worth pointing out that the importance of the Best Film winner from NBR has decreased drastically this millennium. It's been five years since the Oscars gave Best Picture to the NBR Best Film winner; Green Book's surprising win was the first time they matched in a decade. Add in the fact that Best Picture rarely goes to musicals like Wicked, and I don't sense that the Broadway adaptation is suddenly a frontrunner to win - despite its broad appeal.

What Wicked's National Board Of Review Best Film Win Actually Means For The 2025 Oscars

Wicked Is Much Closer To A Best Picture Nomination Now

While I'm not of the belief that Wicked is in the best spot to win Best Picture right now, its Best Film win does dramatically increase my conviction that it will be a Best Picture nominee. This, again, is tied to how the National Board of Review and the Oscars can overlap. Throughout NBR's history, the Best Film winner has at least been nominated for Best Picture 71 out of 92 times. That means the Best Film winner gets a Best Picture Oscar nomination over 77% of the time. Wicked should be the 72nd time it has happened.

There are some notable examples that make up the remaining 23% of NBR Best Film winners, with Spike Lee's Da 5 Bloods marking the most recent film to miss out on a Best Picture nomination. But just as the odds of the winners matching have dropped since the turn of the century, there have been fewer examples of a movie winning at NBR and missing out at the Academy Awards, with only three films doing so. That's a great sign for Wicked to at least secure a Best Picture nomination.

Moulin Rouge was the last musical to win Best Film before Wicked

This could ultimately leave Wicked in a spot to follow a similar awards season trajectory as 2001's Moulin Rouge. The film earned eight Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, after winning the top prize from the National Board of Review. Moulin Rouge was the last musical to win Best Film before Wicked, and there's a clear roap for the 2024 musical to be a serious contender for nominations in several 2025 Oscars categories. This is all good for Wicked to earn a Best Picture nomination, even if I think it needs to do a lot more before it can win.