With the 2025 Academy Awards is starting to look clearer than ever - despite a few unexpected hiccups. The ceremony took place on January 5th and saw plenty of the year’s most acclaimed and beloved movies finally receive their flowers, with some of the most noteworthy awards going to The Brutalist for Best Drama Picture, Emilia Perez for Best Musical/Comedy, and Adrien Brody for Best Drama Actor.

While many pundits were expecting these awards, there were several huge surprises at the Golden Globes that nobody saw coming. These included a shocking Best Actress victory for Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here, Demi Moore’s victory for The Substance over the perceived frontrunner Mikey Madison in Anora, and an unexpected award for Challengers via Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’ original score. However, the one movie that really paved its road to the Oscars at the 2025 Golden Globes was The Brutalist, which has cemented itself as the clear frontrunner.

The Golden Globes Show The Brutalist Is Picking Up Momentum Before The Oscars

The Film Has Been Steadily Picking Up Awards

The Golden Globes were the first of the major awards ceremonies this year, and it confirmed many things that pundits were suspecting about this season - primarily regarding Brady Corbet’s American epic The Brutalist. The film had been performing excellently with critics groups, but it wasn’t until the Golden Globes that it could firmly be called the frontrunner, as it beat movies such as Conclave and A Complete Unknown. This has given the film a much-needed burst of momentum before the Oscars in March.

Importantly, The Brutalist’s success at the Golden Globes wasn’t limited to a single category. The film took home three awards, including Best Drama Picture, Best Drama Actor (for Adrien Brody) and Best Director (for Brady Corbet). This is a huge accomplishment that really proves how much love there is for The Brutalist among voters, which could potentially carry over to the Academy Awards. It’s now a safe prediction for many categories at the Oscars.

The Brutalist's Golden Globes Win Gives It A Better Chance To Win Best Picture

Brady Corbet's Film Is Making Noise As The Frontrunner

Although Brady’s and Corbet’s wins shouldn’t go underappreciated, the biggest victory for The Brutalist at the Golden Globes was in the Best Drama Picture category. This is a hugely important precursor for the Oscars, and it’s one of the most accurate predictors for Best Picture among the major televised precursors. This century, the Golden Globes’ Best Drama Picture has gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars nine times, as recently as last year with Oppenheimer. The only time this decade the Globes clearly missed was in 2021, when they awarded The Power of the Dog over CODA.

These statistics prove that the Golden Globes, at least in recent years, have done a great job of predicting which film is going to win Best Picture - and they chose The Brutalist.

These statistics prove that the Golden Globes, at least in recent years, have done a great job of predicting which film is going to win Best Picture - and they chose The Brutalist. This is a major step forward for the film, and while it comes at the detriment of excellent projects like Anora and Conclave, it’s an extremely deserving film to win. It’s certainly not set in stone, but it’s a major step forward since the Golden Globes’ Best Drama category has matched with the Oscars' Best Picture winner 40 out of 81 times.

Will The Brutalist Actually Win Best Picture At The 2025 Oscars?

There's Still A Long Road Ahead

Ultimately, the Oscars are still too far away to say with any certainty whether The Brutalist is going to win Best Picture. Films such as Conclave and Anora should still have a secure place in anybody’s Best Picture predictions, and movies like The Substance and A Complete Unknown aren’t totally out of the question either. It’s worth noting that the Oscars’ preferential ballot system could pose a challenge for The Brutalist, as it makes it far easier for “runner-up” movies like Conclave and Anora to sneak into first place by being consistently high on the ballot.

The Golden Globes are just the first of several important precursors, with the SAG Awards and Critics Choice Awards coming next - and these could present some major hurdles for The Brutalist. Perhaps Timothée Chalamet or Ralph Fiennes destabilizes Adrien Brody at the SAG Awards, which may have an important knock-on effect at the Oscars. And perhaps Edward Berger or Sean Baker will take home the important DGA Award instead of Brady Corbet. Any of these upsets could prove fatal for The Brutalist’s chances, so the race certainly isn’t over yet.