Oscars Best Actors prediction lists.

Following the Golden Globes on January 5, the most popular contenders for different Oscars were shaken up as Golden Globes winner for Best Actor in a Drama makes it less likely that Chalamet will be able to break a 22-year-old Oscars record now.

The Golden Globes Help Cement Adrien Brody As The Oscars 2025 Best Actor Frontrunner, Not Timothée Chalamet

The Brutalist Actor Looks Set To Win The Oscar Now

While both Timothée Chalamet and Adrien Brody were nominated in the Best Actor - Drama category for the Golden Globes, Brody ultimately took home the award for his performance in The Brutalist, marking an important early victory for him over his younger competitor. In fact, Brody's Golden Globes win may put a block on Chalamet's chances of breaking the record for youngest winner of the Best Actor award, which Brody himself set in 2003. Chalamet facing off against the current record holder proves that the competition is definitely tough, and the current Oscars talk is now leaning in Brody's favor.

While the Golden Globes do vary in their nominees and winner to a certain extent compared to the Oscars, the awards are a good indicator of what could happen at the latter ceremony. The Best Actor - Drama winner for the Golden Globes and the Oscars has differed two times in the past decade, with the 2020 Golden Globe going to Chadwick Boseman and the Oscar going to Anthony Hopkins and the 2022 Golden Globe going to Austin Butler and the Oscar going to Brendan Fraser. However, eight of the past 10 years have had the same winner, making it a reliable source for Oscars predictions.

The Key Award That Could Determine The Oscars 2025 Best Actor Race

The SAG Award Could Still Change The Odds

Beyond the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild Awards for Best Actor are considered the best bellwether for who will win the Oscars. In the 30 years of the SAG Awards, their best actor winners have aligned with the Oscar winners all but five times, and one of those wins went to the Oscars Best ing Actor winner. Given this overlap, if Timothée Chalamet wins the SAG award, he could retake the front-runner position from Adrien Brody.

Thus, even if Chalamet wins neither the Golden Globe nor the SAG Award for A Complete Unknown, it is still possible that he could follow in Brody's footsteps and win the Oscar, breaking Brody's youngest winner record at the same time.

Ironically, though, when Adrien Brody won the Best Actor Oscar in 2003 for The Pianist, he did not win the SAG Award. Instead, the award that year went to Daniel Day-Lewis for his role in Gangs of New York. Additionally, Brody did not win the 2003 Golden Globe either, with Jack Nicholson taking it home for his performance in About Schmidt. Thus, even if Chalamet wins neither the Golden Globe nor the SAG Award for A Complete Unknown, it is still possible that he could follow in Brody's footsteps and win the Oscar, breaking Brody's youngest winner record at the same time.